Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Australia's trade surplus widens to $9.6bn in August

Australia's trade surplus widened by $2.3bn to $9.6bn in August, printing above the $8.7bn figure expected. The widening was driven by an uplift in exports (4%) as imports softened (-0.4%) - despite surging petrol prices causing fuel imports to accelerate by almost 21% in the month.  




The monthly trade surplus increased from a downwardly revised $7.3bn in July (from $8.0bn) to $9.6bn in August. The 3-month average for the trade surplus was $8.9bn, a figure that has moderated gradually over the course of the year. Declining commodity prices have seen exports ease from record highs in mid-2022 while exports have remained close to their level from a year ago. 


Monthly exports advanced by $2.1bn (4%) to $55.7bn, driven largely by the volatile non-monetary gold component (96.7%). Non-rural goods firmed 0.5%, with a rise in iron ore exports (4.4%) just offsetting a fall in coal exports (-7.5%). Services (1.5%) were the other contributor to the rise in exports, with tourism services increasing further (2%) as the post-pandemic recovery extended to a rise of 83.2% over the year. Rural goods fell in August (-2.6%) and have declined by 12.4% from a record high 12 months ago.


Imports ($46.1bn) declined by a modest 0.4% in the month. That headline change, however, obscures some large movements beneath the surface. Capital goods fell 11.8% as industrial transport equipment and aircraft orders pulled back. Intermediate goods rose 7.2% - their largest increase since May last year - as surging oil prices saw the value of fuel imports accelerate by 20.8% in the month. Consumption goods posted a 1.7% increase as vehicle imports (3.4%) remained elevated. Services imports were up 1.6% on the back of overseas tourism (3.9%) amid the winter exodus of many Australians to Europe.