Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Preview: Wage Price Index Q4

Australia's Wage Price Index data for the December quarter are to be published by the ABS today at 11:30am (AEDT). In response to the pandemic shock and resulting dislocation in the labour market, Australian wages growth has slowed to its lowest level on record. The pandemic and the measures brought in to contain it has led to a substantial increase in spare capacity in the labour market, while many firms have responded to the crisis by implementing wage freezes (some have introduced temporary cuts) and in the public sector freezes and caps on the pace of wage increases have been common.  

As it stands Wage Price Index

The headline WPI came in weaker than expected in the September quarter at 0.07%, slowing to a new record low at 1.36%Y/Y from 1.82%. The slowdown remains more severe in the private sector where the annual pace declined to 1.21% from 1.68% while public sector wages growth eased to 1.77% from 2.07%, though both were at their lowest on record. The slowdown in wages growth has been broad-based across the economy with 7 of the 18 industries measured by the ABS returning a sub 1% annual pace as of Q3. For a full review of Q3's data see here     


Market expectations Wage Price Index

Another soft outcome is expected to be reported today with the median estomate for wages growth in Q4 situated at 0.3%, with the range of forecasts between 0.1% and 0.4%. This would see the annual pace slowing further to 1.1%. 

What to watch Wage Price Index

Slowing wages growth has occurred across the Australian economy (see chart, below), and in most other economies for that matter. With the disruptions from the pandemic stabilising to some degree through a wider reopening in Q4, the industry breakdown will be of interest to see the impact on wages growth, particularly in some of the areas hardest hit by the restrictions.