From a policy perspective, the most significant change since the Board's last meeting has been the tapering of its bond-buying, which the governor had flagged in his April decision statement. Indeed, in the week of that April meeting, bond purchases totaled $7.5bn and that has since slowed to $4.75bn, then $2.5bn before easing to just $1.5bn last week. All the while the 3-year bond yield has remained tightly anchored around the 0.25% target for the overnight cash rate. Clearly, even in that situation, its main policy tool is working very effectively but expect today's statement to reaffirm the Bank's commitment to "do what is necessary to achieve the 3-year yield target". Improved liquidity conditions has enabled the RBA to taper, though also note that this has occured alongside the commencement of drawings under the RBA's $90bn Term Funding Facility so expect to see some comments from the governor here.
Overall, the narrative of today's statement is likely to be one of remaining supportive in the face of severe economic headwinds. On the lines of the statement from April, the Board will reinforce to markets that it is committed to maintaining the 3-year yield around the target for the overnight cash rate and that, despite its bond-buying having slowed substantially, it will step in to ensure smooth market functioning should liquidity conditions warrant it.
