International Trade — September | By the numbers
- September's trade surplus came in at $A7.18bn and well clear of the market forecast of $5.05bn. August's initially reported surplus of $5.926bn was revised up to $6.617bn in today's release.
- Export earnings increased by 3.5% in September to $43.215bn to more than offset a 2.0% fall in the previous month, while the annual pace firmed from 12.0% to 14.8%.
- Import expenditure lifted by 2.5% in the month to $36.034bn (prior rev -0.5%m/m) driving the annual pace from -0.4% to 3.2%.
- The sum of the nation's monthly trade surpluses reached $21.113bn over Q3 (July $7.316bn, August $6.617bn and September $7.18bn), with the ABS reporting its preliminary estimate for the quarter is $20.917bn, after seasonal adjustments. This implies the trade surplus lifted by $1.599bn or 8.3% over Q3.
International Trade — September | The details
Export earnings were up by 3.5% (or $1.452bn) in September to $43.215bn. The gains were broad-based across non-rural goods 2.1% ($586m), non-monetary gold 26.1% ($558m), rural goods 6.4% ($240m) and services 0.8% ($69m). For non-rural goods, the gains were led by 'other mineral fuels' (which includes LNG) rising by 8% ($417m) and metal ores and minerals (including iron ore) up by 3% ($318m). In rural goods, increases from cereals (18%) and meat (2%) is likely an indication of drought-related impacts on prices. In year-on-year terms, export earnings have risen by a sharp 14.8% with strength in iron ore prices the key.
Expenditure on imports increased by 2.5% (or $889m) over September to come in at a total of $36.034bn. Most of the sub-categories increased over the month; capital goods 11.6% ($702m), intermediate goods 4.5% ($474m), consumption goods 0.7% ($64m) and services 0.3% ($22m), though non-monetary gold declined by 34% (-$373m). Within intermediate goods, fuels and lubricants increased by 8% ($238m) on rising oil prices. Through the year, imports are up by 3.2%, which is partially driven by a weaker Australian dollar.
International Trade — September | Insights
The trade surplus was up by a robust 8% (or $1.6bn) over Q3. Export earnings lifted by around 2.7% on Q2, while imports increased by a more modest 0.8%. Data out last week indicated that export prices increased by 1.3% in Q3 and import prices were little changed rising by only 0.4%. In the June quarter, net exports contributed a solid 0.6ppt to GDP growth, but it will likely slow to around half of that in Q3, based on current indications. Meanwhile, the terms of trade look likely to post another solid increase in Q3 boosting national income.
