As it stands | Labour Force Survey
In March, employment increased by a net 25,700 printing well above the median forecast for a 15,000 gain. As expected, the national unemployment rate lifted from 4.9% to 5.0%, reflecting a 0.1ppt increase in workforce participation to 65.7%. Both underemployment (from 8.1% to 8.2%) and underutilisation (from 13.0% to 13.2%) deteriorated slightly over the month. Lastly, total hours worked increased by 0.7% in the month and annual growth accelerated from 2.2% to 3.0%. For full details see March's review here.
After a solid showing in 2018, the labour market remained robust over Q1 as employment increased by 71,000. As a result, annual employment growth increased to 2.4% from 2.2% in Q4, with Q1's outturn contributing 0.6ppt to the annual rate.
Market expectations | Labour Force Survey 
Today, the median forecast according to Bloomberg Australia is for employment to rise by a net 15,000 in April around a wide range from 1,000 to 29,000. The national unemployment rate is anticipated to hold at 5.0%, with estimates ranging between 4.9% and 5.1%. The workforce participation rate is seen remaining at 65.7% on a median basis between estimates from 65.5% to 65.8%.
The second last line of the Governor's May decision statement noted "...there was still spare capacity in the economy and that a further improvement in the labour market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target". With that being the case, look out for any deterioration in the unemployment rate and the in the broader measures of labour market slack including the underemployment and underutilisation in today's report. That scenario would follow on from increases in the previous month and take the Bank closer to its threshold for a rate cut.
