Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Monday, December 10, 2018

Australian property prices fall by 1.5% in Q3

Australian property prices declined by 1.5% in the September quarter according to the ABS' Residential Property Price Index released today. Over the past 12 months, prices on a national weighted-average basis have fallen by 1.9%, which has been driven mostly by the Sydney and Melbourne markets. This series is compiled by the ABS each quarter using data provided by CoreLogic RP Data, who produce more timely updates on a monthly basis. Last week, CoreLogic released their Home Value Index for November (see here).  

Across the capital cities, the results for Q3 were; 

  • Sydney -1.9% (-4.4% in year-ended terms)
  • Melbourne -2.6% (-1.5%)
  • Brisbane +0.6% (+1.7%)
  • Adelaide +0.6% (+2.0%)
  • Perth -0.6% (+0.5%)
  • Hobart +1.3% (+13.0%)  
  • Darwin -0.9% (-4.4%)
  • Canberra +0.5% (+3.7%)

These results are shown in the chart, below.



A granular breakdown of the price changes across the cities for both houses and units are provided in the table, below.


For a historical perspective, the index totals for each capital city are shown in the chart, below, from the start of this series in 2003. According to these data, Sydney prices peaked in the June quarter last year, while Melbourne peaked slightly later in the December quarter. Reflecting these trends in the two largest markets, national property prices according to the weighted-average index numbers peaked in the December quarter last year and have been declining since. However, prices have risen strongly in Hobart and modestly on an overall basis in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Canberra, though the pace of those increases has slowed. 

  
According to the latest estimates from the ABS, the total value of residential property in Australia eased by around 1% in Q3 to $A6.847tn and the mean price declined by $9,700 to $675,000. Meanwhile, the total number of dwellings increased by 40,900 in the quarter to 10,143,700. 

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As always, when it comes to the Australian property market the analysis on this release from Pete Wargent will be essential reading.