Australia's goods trade surplus was moderately wider at $11bn in January from a revised $10.7bn in December, the outcome printing below the $11.5bn consensus forecast. Exports opened 2024 with a 1.6% rise, its 4th month-on-month increase in succession, outpacing a 1.3% lift in import spending. Both exports and imports have fallen by around 5% over the past year.
The goods trade surplus widened a little further to $11bn in January. This is consistent with the trend over recent months. On a 3-month average basis, the goods surplus reached a recent trough of around $8bn in September-October; subsequently, it has widened to an average of $11.1bn for the 3 months to January. Export income has been on a rising trajectory - underpinning the acceleration in the current account surplus reported earlier this week - as import spending has softened, reflecting weakening domestic demand conditions.
In January, exports saw a 1.6% rise to $47.5bn, the level down 5.2% on a year ago. The key movements came in non-monetary gold (18.2%) and rural goods (7.6%). Rural goods advanced as the value of meat (17.7%) and grain exports (26.6%) accelerated. Non-rural goods declined overall, down 0.5% as a 1% rise in iron ore exports was offset by falls in coal (-0.7%), LNG (-0.9%) and metals (-6.7%).
Imports ($36.5bn) posted a 1.3% rise following a 4% lift in December. Prior to that, imports were down notably through October (-3.2%) and November (-8.2%). For January, consumption goods increased by 5.2%, driven almost exclusively by imports of new vehicles (17.2%). Capital goods saw a 5.9% rise on the back of telecommunications equipment (30.3%) and industrial transport equipment (13.1%). By contrast, intermediate goods declined 5.1%, dragged lower by declines in fuel imports (-5.6%) and parts for vehicles (-27.6%).
