As it stands | Labour Force Survey
Employment increased by a net 14.7k in September; broadly matching the consensus expectation of 15.0k to round out a robust quarter. In fact, employment on net increased by 87.6k in Q3 making it the strongest quarter since Q4 2017. Employment growth in annual terms remained at around a 2.5% pace, though a jump in the 3-month annualised pace from 2.3% to 2.7% suggests the momentum has strengthened recently.
For a full review of September's report see here
Market expectations | Labour Force Survey
According to Bloomberg's survey of economists, the consensus expectation is that employment increased by 16.0k in October, with individual estimates varying between 7.0k and 30.0k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to have remained at 5.2%, with the range of estimates tight between 5.2% and 5.3%. Lastly, no change in the participation rate from 66.1% is the consensus expectation between a range from 66.1% to 66.2%.
The key question is whether the unemployment rate, as well as the broader measures of underemployment and underutilisation, can hold on to (or potentially even improve on) their gains from the previous month in today's report. As is always the case, much will depend on what happens with the participation rate, with the decline in September from 66.2% to 66.1% coming against the run of play given this was its first monthly fall since February earlier this year. The outgoing rotation group in the ABS's sample has a lower participation rate than the sample as a whole, so there could potentially be some upside risk attached to the market's expectation for the participation rate to hold at 66.1%.