Australian housing finance firms 0.7% in October

Australian borrower-accepted housing finance commitments firmed by 0.7% in October rising to a record high level at $22.68bn with policy support measures driving a strong rebound in activity over recent months. 

Housing Finance — October | By the numbers

• Housing finance commitments ($ value, ex-refinancing) made it 5 straight monthly gains rising by 0.7% in October to $22.68bn, though this was short of the median estimate for a 2.5% lift (prior: 5.9%). In annual terms, growth came back a touch to 23.3% from 25.5%. 
• Owner-occupier commitments advanced by a further 0.8% to $17.39bn to be up 31.2% on a year earlier (prior: 6.0%m/m, 33.8%Y/Y).    
• Refinancing to owner-occupiers pulled back by 6.9% to $7.4bn for an annual rise of 23.8%. 
• Investor commitments ticked up by 0.3% in October to $5.29bn (prior 5.2%), with the annual pace slowing from 4.2% to 2.8%. 

Housing Finance — October | The details 

The value of Australian borrower-accepted housing finance commitments has now lifted in each of the past 5 months, the period coinciding with the reopening of the economy. But October's 0.7% gain was by a distance the softest outcome during this stretch, due largely to weakness in Victoria associated with the state's return to lockdown. Notwithstanding this, the main narrative is that housing finance commitments nationally have accelerated by 38.9% since May on the back of a range of policy support measures, including very low interest rates, the Federal Government's HomeBuilder scheme, and state government incentives for first home buyers. 

In the owner-segment, the value of commitments (ex-refinancing) was up by 0.8% in October to $17.39bn for a gain of 31.2% over the year. Most notable were the gains that came through for alterations (up 21.8% to $270m) and new construction (lifting 10.9% to $2.85bn), both reflecting the traction from the HomeBuilder scheme. Meanwhile, the strength in the first home buyer segment extended to a 5th straight month, though at a more moderate pace (3.1%) on this occasion. Still, the value of first home buyer commitments has risen almost 49% from a year ago. Commitments to the investor segment lifted marginally in October (0.3%) to $5.29bn for a gain of 2.8% over the year. There has been a decent rebound in the segment since the reopening (29.5%), though it has not been as strong as it has been for owner-occupiers (42%) and this is also off a very weak base.

In terms of owner-occupier approvals, the main point of strength in October was around loans for new construction — again pointing to the HomeBuilder effect — which lifted by 11.5% to be up almost 83% over the year. Also, first home buyer approvals advanced by 3.4%, taking the annual gain to 48.1% from 45.5%, with state government incentives a key factor driving the escalation.

         

A summary of the state data can be seen in the table below. Very clearly, the weakness in Victoria stands out due to the disruption from the shutdown, though given the stimulus measures in the market a strong rebound should be coming now that the state has reopened, all else equal. 

Housing Finance — October | Insights

The picture in October was skewed due to the shutdown in Victoria, but the main takeaway is that the mix of policy measures that have been introduced to support the housing market are having a powerful effect, particularly in the construction-related areas and in the first home buyer segment.    

In review: Australian Q3 GDP: Recovery commences on the reopening

The Australian economy rebounded by 3.3% in the September quarter in what were the early phases of the reopening from its Covid-19 shutdown. This result was stronger than expected (2.5%) and moderated the decline in annual real GDP growth to -3.8% from -6.4%. Over the first half of the year, the domestic economy contracted by 7.3%, which incorporates the historic 7.0% fall in the June quarter as the full scale of the disruption from the shutdown hit and a modest 0.3% decline in the March quarter. These outcomes leave Australian GDP around 4.2% lower than its pre-pandemic level at the end of 2019.

Relative to what has occurred in Australia, larger declines in GDP were recorded over the first half of the year in economies offshore where virus outbreaks were more severe, restrictions on activity were tighter and shutdowns stayed in place for longer. The subsequent rebounds in GDP in Q3 have been largest in these economies as they reopened, though a resurgence in the virus has since derailed progress in the recovery in Europe and the UK as shutdowns have been reinstated, while in the US the risks to the outlook have increased as the case count has exceeded earlier highs.     

From mid-May, the reopening of the Australian economy commenced through a gradual easing of restrictions in most states after the earlier containment measures had slowed the infection rate considerably. However, by late June to early July, a noticeable rise in virus cases emerged in Victoria, though they remained contained in the other states. In response, the Victorian authorities incrementally tightened restrictions and this broadened out to a statewide shutdown by August. Stringent containment measures then remained in place in Melbourne until late October but were phased out a little earlier in regional Victoria. This came against an easing trend in activity restrictions across the other states, though restrictions on interstate travel were tightened over the period. 

Responding to these developments, mobility indicators in Melbourne rolled over from July and then remained at a much lower level than in the other capital cities over the September quarter. Mobility in Sydney appeared to slow in line with the developments in Melbourne before recovering over August and September, while the other capitals remained around a consistent level through the quarter, though still well below where they were before the onset of the pandemic. 

As the reopening took shape, conditions in the labour market rebounded quickly, though the recovery remains incomplete and the progress has been uneven across industries and the nation more generally. Employment in Victoria weakened further on its return to shutdown but it improved across the rest of the nation as the easing of more restrictions led to an increased level of economic activity. Hours worked in the Q3 national accounts was reported to have rebounded by 4.5% across the economy, but the level is still around 7% lower than before the onset of the pandemic. A high unemployment rate (7% in October) and elevated spare capacity more broadly are the damaging legacies to the economy this pandemic has inflicted.  

The 3.3% rebound in GDP growth in Q3 is a good start to addressing this situation. Driving this was household consumption bouncing back as opportunities to engage in activity and spend became more widely available on the reopening, most notably in services areas. It also reflected the powerful tailwinds generated by a very significant policy response. On the fiscal side, the ABS reports that $71bn in JobKeeper payments (Federal Government's wage subsidy) have flowed to households since its introduction, while an additional $34.6bn in support measures have been provided to businesses. The measures in the recent Federal Budget confirm support will be around 7% of GDP in 2020/21, with the focus being on stimulating private sector demand through bringing forward tax cuts, encouraging investment and boosting infrastructure spending. On monetary policy, the RBA has recently stepped up its response, lowering its interest rates structure to 0.1% and introducing a $100bn quantitive easing program at its November Board meeting. The ongoing fiscal and monetary policy support will be important in helping the economic recovery amid what is still a very uncertain outlook, while encouraging news around the development of vaccines offer optimism that there is light at the end of the tunnel.  

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GDP — Q3 | Expenditure: GDP (E) 3.2%q/q, -3.9%Y/Y

Household consumption (7.9%q/q, -6.5%Y/Y) — A strong rebound in household consumption of 7.9% on the reopening of the economy was the main theme in the September quarter, contributing 4ppts to GDP growth. During the shutdown-impacted Q2, household consumption collapsed by 12.9% as spending opportunities were limited by the activity and mobility restrictions. But even after Q3's rebound, household consumption is still 6.8% below its pre-pandemic level.  

The areas of consumption that drove the rebound were those that were hit hardest by the restrictions as the pandemic emerged. After plunging by 17.9% in Q2, services consumption lifted by 9.8% in the September quarter reflecting very strong increases across transport (includes travel) (50.7%), hotels, cafes and restaurants (49.7%), health (26%), other services (23.4%) and recreation and culture (12.8%). Goods consumption also rebounded after a weak Q2 with a 5.2% rise where strength in clothing and footwear (21.8%) and new vehicles (15.4%) was notable.

Household income continued to be bolstered by fiscal support measures. ABS analysis reports that $35.8bn in JobKeeper payments was channeled through to households in Q3. In addition to this was the rebound in hours worked in Q3 (4.5%). These factors were key to driving a 3.3% lift in real household disposable income that extended on Q2's 3.5% rise, elevating the pace of annual growth to a near 12-year high (7.6%). After the household saving ratio soared to its highest level since the mid-1970s in Q2 at 22.1%, this declined by 3.2ppts to 18.9% as people made use of some of the funds they had accumulated during the shutdown. But with the level of saving still very elevated and with labour market conditions improving, household balance sheets appear in good shape to withstand the eventual tapering of fiscal support measures.    

Dwelling investment (0.6%q/q, -7.6%Y/Y) — Residential construction posted its first quarterly rise in activity — albeit modest at 0.6%q/q — since Q2 2018, though it is still down by 7.6% through the year. Whereas new home building (-2.1%) extended its run of weakness out to a 9th consecutive quarter, alteration work came through with a 5.1% rise helped by the return to work after a weak Q2 (-5.5%) as well as the support from the Federal Government's HomeBuilder scheme that offers grants for substantial house renovations that meet certain criteria. Meanwhile, ownership transfer costs — relating to fees associated with real estate transactions — rebounded sharply (21.4%q/q) as restrictions that had impacted the residential property market were rolled back, this by itself added 0.3ppt to growth in Q3.

Business investment (-4.1%q/q, -9.2%Y/Y) — Going into 2020, business investment was already weak and this has since been accentuated by the onset of the pandemic as firms have responded to a highly uncertain economic outlook by cutting back to preserve liquidity. After Q3's 4.1% fall, business investment is 8.6% lower than its pre-pandemic level. Non-dwelling construction recorded a sharp 7.4% contraction in the quarter (-9.3%Y/Y), while machinery and equipment demand also pulled back noticeably (-3.2%) to be 11.6% lower through the year. The recent ABS Capital Expenditure survey pointed to a less pessimistic assessment of forward-looking investment plans and measures from the recent Federal Budget should help, but the outlook remains challenging. 

Public demand (1.8%q/q, 6.2%Y/Y) — Helping to moderate the impact of weakness in the private sector on the economy over recent years has been public demand and this continued in Q3, rising overall by 1.8% to be up by 6.2% through the year. Public spending lifted by 1.4% (7.8%Y/Y), while underlying investment rebounded by 3.3% from a weak Q2, though it has been broadly flat over the past year (-0.5%). 

Net exports (-1.9ppts in Q3, -0.8ppt yr) — The ongoing effects of the pandemic continue to impact trade flows significantly. Net exports were a drag on activity in the quarter, with the 1.9ppt subtraction to GDP being its largest in 40 years. Import volumes rebounded by 6.5% on the reopening as demand for consumption and capital goods improved, but exports fell (-3.2%) under the weight of the travel restrictions on overseas arrivals and weakness in the global economy. 

Inventories (0.8ppt in Q3, 0.3ppts yr) — After being run down sharply over the first half of the year, inventory levels still declined in Q3, though at a greatly reduced pace and this was reflected by a sizeable contribution to activity in the quarter. 

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GDP — Q3 | Incomes: GDP (I) 3.5%q/q, -3.8%Y/Y

The real GDP income estimate lifted by 3.5% in Q3 after falling by 7.2% in the June quarter as the decline through the year improved to -3.8% from -6.7%.

Nominal Australian GDP was coming off its largest quarterly contraction on record in Q2 (-7.4%) as the shutdown hit employee and business incomes hard. While the reopening generated a 3.7% rebound in the quarter, national income is still some 3.7% lower than its pre-pandemic level. 

Attenuating the shock has been the very significant level of income transfers from the public sector to businesses and households. Reflecting this, nominal total factor income (GDP (I) minus taxes less subsidies) has advanced by 7.6% over the past two quarters as nominal GDP has fallen by 4% over the period.

The nation's terms of trade had another subdued quarter lifting by 0.8%, which kept the annual pace little changed at -2.5% from -2.6%.

Business profits continue to be boosted by significant fiscal support with ABS analysis placing this at $57.6bn in Q3, incorporating $35.8bn from the JobKeeper policy and $13.4bn through the 'Boosting cash flow for employers' measure. Private sector company profits (ex-financial corporations) increased by a further 3.8% in the quarter (18.2%Y/Y) after surging up by 18.7% in Q2. Small businesses have been the primary beneficiaries of the fiscal support measures, with gross mixed income extending Q2's 22.2% surge with a 6.8% rise that has elevated growth through the year to 30.1%. Financial corporations operating surplus lifted by 0.8% in Q3, and while this improved the pace through the year from 0.6% to 1.1% growth is subdued as low rates continue to place pressure on interest margins.

Incomes from wages and salaries rebounded by 2.3% in Q3 to unwind the decline in the June quarter (-2.3%), with the pace through the year firming to 1.4% from 0.2%. The lift in wages was notably lower than the rise in hours worked across the economy (4.5%). 

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GDP — Q3 | Production: GDP (P) 3.3%q/q, -3.7%Y/Y

The production estimate for GDP in the September quarter came in at 3.3%, with the contraction through the year moderating to -3.7% from -6.3%. The clear narrative that came through was the rebound in the services sector that occurred on the reopening of the economy after being hit hard by the earlier restrictions. After contracting by 8.6% in Q2, gross value added by industries in the services sector lifted by 5% in the September quarter, though it is still 4.6% below its pre-pandemic level. By comparison, goods-related industries saw gross value added rising by 2.1% after falling by 6.5% in Q2, with the level now 4.7% below its pre-pandemic baseline.

On the services side, household services lifted by 8.8% in Q3 (-3.9%Y/Y) reflecting the reopening of accommodation and food services (41%q/q) and the return of face-to-face appointments and elective surgeries in the health sector (9.1%). Business services advanced by 2.4% in Q3 (-4.0%Y/Y) as activity in real estate (7.7%) and professional services (2.5%) came back online.

For the goods-related sector, the recovery was centred on industries in goods distribution where retailers (5.6%), wholesalers (4.7%) and transport firms (4.7%) saw demand conditions pick up on the reopening. The goods production sector was held to a modest 0.8% lift in Q3 as a decline in mining (-1.7%) attenuated rebounds from manufacturing (4.0%) and construction (2.2%), with the latter likely restrained by the shutdown in Victoria.  

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GDP — Q3 | Prices

The disinflationary impact on the economy following the onset of the pandemic eased in the September quarter due to the reopening. Coming after a 0.5% fall in Q2, economy-wide inflation based on the GDP deflator lifted by 0.4% in Q3, though the annual pace slipped into contraction (-0.1%) due to a base effect. Adjusting for the terms of trade impact on prices, the gross national expenditure deflator rebounded partially in Q3 (0.3% from -0.6%), with the level a touch softer over the year at 0.8%. 

The household consumption deflator — the closest proxy in the national accounts to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — was near flat in the quarter (0.1%) and is just 0.5% higher over the year to be at its weakest since Q1 1999. This is close to the CPI (seasonally adjusted) that came in at 0.7%Y/Y in the September quarter.     

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GDP — Q3 | Productivity

Hours worked across the economy collapsed over the first half of the year (-11%) as the pandemic emerged and restrictions came on, with the decline in the market sector (excludes the public sector) even more severe (-13%). In this context, the rebounds in Q3, while sharp in isolation, show that the recovery has a long way to go with hours worked overall up 4.5%q/q and 5.3%q/q higher in the market sector. 

As the increase in hours worked was faster than the rise in output, GDP per hour worked was mechanically pulled lower (-1.1%) in Q3 (3.1%Y/Y). Meanwhile, GDP per capita rebounded by 3.2% in the quarter, but it remains sharply lower through the year (-4.7%) and on its pre-pandemic level (-4.8%) reflecting the hit to productivity from the shutdown and restrictions.  

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GDP — Q3 | States

The divergence in the reopening story was evident in the state demand figures as Victoria re-entered shutdown mode while the recovery across the rest of the nation progressed. State demand in Victoria contracted by 1.0% in Q3 (-9.8%Y/Y) following Q2's 8.5% collapse as well as a 0.3% decline in Q1. As it stands, Victorian state demand has contracted by 9.7% from its pre-pandemic level. With the shutdown in effect, the declines were broad based with business investment plunging (-11.3%) and household consumption (-1.2%) and residential construction (-1.0%) pulling back, though some moderation came through from public demand (3.5%). 

In New South Wales, state demand lifted by 6.8% in Q3 (-3.3%Y/Y) as household consumption (10.8%) soared coming out of the shutdown. Residential construction (2.7%) also benefitted from the reopening as well as policy stimulus posting its first quarterly rise since Q2 2018. However, business investment (-2.4%) weakened for a third straight quarter and has contracted by 8.8% through the year. Public demand remains supportive (2.2%9/q and 6.5%Y/Y), though this centres on spending after the investment side has softened over 2020.

Across the other states, Queensland was best performed as state demand lifted by 6.8% in Q3 (0.7%Y/Y) coming predominantly from an 11.6% rebound from household consumption, though residential construction (2.4%) also contributed to the reopening effort. In South Australia, state demand posted a 6.7% rise (-0.8%Y/Y) as household consumption lifted by 11.0%. Public demand advanced modestly (1.7%) but was more than offset by contractions in residential construction (-3.3%) and business investment (-0.9%). Western Australian state demand was up by 4.9% in Q3 (-0.7%Y/Y), with household consumption there recording the fastest rebound in the nation (11.7%). But business investment has rolled over since the onset of the pandemic (-0.5%Y/Y) and residential construction (-17.2%) has been weak for some, though recent government incentives are having an effect and should alter the course. Tasmanian state demand increased by 5.5% in Q3 (-3.2%Y/Y) on a household consumption-led recovery (10.6%). But this was attenuated by weakness in the other components with residential construction -2.1%, business investment -0.1% and public demand -1.1%.

   

Australian Q3 GDP 3.3%; -3.8%yr

The reopening from the Covid-19 national shutdown led to the Australian economy rebounding at a faster-than-expected pace as real GDP growth in the September quarter lifted by 3.3% compared to the median estimate for a 2.5% rise. Over the first half of 2020, output declined by 7.3% following Q2's historic 7.0% contraction and a modest 0.3% fall in Q1. Australian GDP is now 4.2% lower than its pre-pandemic level, but this is from a trough of -7.3% in Q2. All told, the recovery is underway and the momentum is building with Victoria recently emerging from its shutdown, while news on vaccine developments has been encouraging, but it remains incomplete and the progress has not come evenly across the economy. With uncertainty over the outlook unusually high and spare capacity in the labour market at an elevated level, the recent Federal Budget and actions by the RBA, including the introduction of quantitive easing, have confirmed that significant policy support will continue for some time as the economy transitions through the pandemic shock.   

By the start of the September quarter, the reopening was well underway across the nation giving strong impetus to the recovery. The momentum faded as rising virus case numbers in Victoria led to the eventual reversal of the state's reopening and for a time this had spillover effects on confidence in the other states. But with case numbers outside Victoria staying contained, the broader recovery got going again as confidence came back. The reopening helped assist a rebound in labour market conditions and by the end of the quarter a little more than half of the earlier 872k job losses that occured during the shutdown had been rovered. Today's national accounts reported that hours worked across the economy rebounded by 4.5% in Q3, though they are still 7% lower than their pre-pandemic level, which highlights the impact of the Victorian shutdown as well as speaking to the legacy of this pandemic being the damage it is inflicted on the labour market. 

The key theme in today's national accounts was the rebound in household consumption as the reopening led to increased opportunities for people to engage in normal economic activity again. After contracting by 12.5% in Q2, household consumption rebounded by 7.9%q/q to add 4.0ppts to GDP in Q3. The profile was led by services consumption that lifted by 9.8%q/q after falling by 17.9% in Q2 as significant gains came through in hotels, cafes and restaurants (49.7%), health (26.0%), other household services (23.4%) and recreation and culture (12.8%). Goods consumption also rebounded from -3.4% in Q2 to 5.9% in Q3 on strong demand for new vehicles (15.4%) and clothing and footwear (21.8%). Other than the reopening, the support of earlier fiscal and monetary stimulus measures were a key driver of the rebound in household consumption. Real growth in household disposable income was sharply higher again in Q3 (3.3%) after surging up in Q2 (3.5%). Households made use of some of the money they had put aside during the shutdown, reflected by a 3.2ppt decline in the saving ratio in the quarter to 18.9%. With the level of saving still very high, this has put households in a good place to withstand the eventual tapering of fiscal support. 

In other developments, business investment continued to fall (-4.1%q/q) as the focus of firms has been to cut back amid the very uncertain outlook to preserve liquidity. Residential construction activity lifted modestly (0.6%) as the support of the HomeBuilder policy boosted alteration work (5.1%) to overcome a 2.1% contraction in new home building. Public demand provided support through continued pandemic-related spending and investment rebounded from a decline in Q2. Meanwhile, net exports were a notable drag (-1.9ppts) reflecting a pick up in import spending relating to improved domestic demand conditions driven by the reopening as exports continued to pull back on the impact of the shuttering of inbound travel and weakness in offshore economies. 

Link to the full review here 

RBA unchanged in December

As was widely expected, the RBA Board maintained its existing policy settings (0.1% targets on the cash rate and 3-year Australian Government bond yield, 0.1% on Term Funding Facility drawings, and the $100bn target on the bond purchase program) at today's December meeting, its final scheduled meeting for 2020. The theme of today's decision statement from Governor Philip Lowe was as our preview had anticipated in that there is reason for optimism, but with caution over the outlook remaining elevated the Board is alert to the downside risks and is "prepared to do more if necessary".

On the global economy, the governor said that the recent news had been "mixed" as the pace of the recoveries underway in Europe and the US lost momentum following a resurgence in the virus, though progress towards the development of potential vaccines had been encouraging. This tension has recently played out in markets, with the governor noting the lift across global equity markets, rising commodity prices and the deprecation of the US dollar as signs that risk sentiment had improved on the vaccine news. 

Turning to Australia, while the recent run of data coming in above expectations was "good news" this needed to be balanced against an outlook that foresees an "uneven and drawn out" recovery that remains "dependent on significant policy support". Looking ahead to 2021, the RBA's baseline outlook is for output growth of 5%, meaning that the nation is still around a year away from returning to its pre-pandemic level of GDP. But the focus remains firmly on the labour market and while the strong employment outcome in October was welcomed, it was highlighted that the unemployment rate lifted to 7.0% and that it was likely to rise further. Current RBA forecasts do not foresee an unemployment rate lower than 6% before the end of 2022 and the situation, therefore, remains of significant concern given that it is seen as placing downward pressure on wages growth and inflation over the next couple of years.

With Governor Lowe again reiterating that the Board sees lowering the elevated unemployment rate as "an important national priority" focus was given to how the measures announced at the November meeting would assist in this regard. In short, by lowering interest rates across the borrowing curve, funding costs are now lower; the exchange rate is weaker than otherwise, and asset prices are higher thereby strengthening balance sheets. To emphasise that quantitive easing is now the Board's marginal policy tool, the governor outlined the volume of purchases completed so far in its bond purchase program has been $19bn, with another $5bn going towards supporting the 0.1% yield target. All this contributes to an expanded central bank balance sheet, with the governor noting this has amounted to an increase of $130bn year to date.  

The final paragraph reiterated the Board's forward guidance that rates are not expected to be increased "for at least 3 years", while also noting that the size of the bond purchase program is to be kept "under review" and notably will be taking into consideration "the evolving outlook for jobs and inflation".

Australian dwelling approvals rise further in October

Australian dwelling approvals came in stronger than expected rising by 3.8% in the month of October against an expected pullback of 3.0%. House approvals elevated further (3.2%) to be at their highest level since early 2000 helped by significant policy support measures since the national shutdown was eased. 

Building Approvals — October | By the numbers

• Dwelling approvals (all sectors, seasonally adjusted) advanced by a further 3.8% in the month of October to 16,584 against the median estimate for a 3.0% decline; this after a 16.2% surge in September (revised from 15.4%). The annual pace has lifted to 14.3% from 9.9%.
• House approvals lifted for a 4th straight month rising by 3.2% in October to 10,936 — its highest level since February 2000 — elevating annual growth to 33.1% from 23.7%. 

• Unit approvals firmed by 5.1% to 5,648, but the level is sharply lower than a year earlier at -10.3%.  

 

Building Approvals — October | The details 

Australian detached house approvals continue to rise sharply on the back of support from policy stimulus measures. Very low interest rates, the HomeBuilder scheme and additional incentives and supports for first home buyers are all contributing to the momentum. Since the most recent trough in June associated with the national shutdown, house approvals have surged up by 31% as these measures have been introduced. Meanwhile, unit approvals are coming off a low base and this segment faces headwinds from unfavourable supply and demand dynamics due to the completion of earlier projects coming alongside the impact of the international border closure, while investor sentiment has been affected by elevated capital city vacancy rates. The chart below using the disaggregated data (which is not seasonally adjusted) shows these themes playing out. 

Another area benefitting from policy support, most notably the HomeBuilder scheme, as well as pandemic-related shifts such as spending more time at home is in residential alterations. While the value of residential alteration work approved declined in October (-3.3%), the level is sharply up over the year (9.4%) at $0.78bn and has surged by 21.5% from its recent April trough.  

Building Approvals — October | Insights 

October's 3.8% gain in approvals was its third rise in the past four months since the easing of the shutdown. The acceleration in approvals over the period (31.4%) has been driven by the detached house segment on the back of a raft of policy stimulus measures — all of which are proving to be very impactful in the sector. The recent extension announced by the Federal Government to the HomeBuilder scheme for an additional 3 months (to the end of March 2021) with widened eligibility criteria, but at a lower level of support ($15k down from $25k) should help continue the momentum for a little longer.