Australia's latest labour force report is due today covering the month of August. With an RBA rate hike close to fully priced at next week's meeting, the report is unlikely to be a volatility event as the Board's focus remains on the inflation side of its mandate. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.5%, sitting at the low end of the range that RBA Governor Bullock said earlier this week would help ease inflation pressures.
August preview: Employment rebound forecast
Markets look for a solid report today, with employment forecast to rise by 20k in the month (range: 10-47k), rebounding from a decline of almost 16k last time out. The unemployment rate, after rising to 4.5% in July, is expected to remain unchanged (range: 4.4-4.5%).
July recap: Employment surprises to the downside
The unemployment rate lifted from 4.4% to 4.5% in July after employment surprised with a 15.8k decline (full time 16.3k/part time -32.2k). Employment was expected to lift by 12k following increases of 38.2k in May and 80.2k in June, its largest rise since April last year. Weighed by the fall in employment, hours worked declined by 0.6% month-on-month.
In a series of mixed outcomes, while the headline unemployment rate rose, the broader underemployment rate held steady at 6.4%; however, total underutilisation ended up falling to 10.8% from a 4-year high (10.9%). The participation rate eased to 66.9% but is close to record highs.
