Australia's Labour Force Survey for February is due today at 1130 AEDT. Robust labour market conditions were a key factor in the RBA's decision to hike rates on Tuesday for the second meeting in succession. Another solid print is expected today, with the unemployment rate forecast to hold at 4.1%.
February preview: Steady as it goes
Markets go into today's report with the line set at a 20k expected increase in employment, after a 17.8k rise last time out. Monthly employment outcomes have been highly volatile over the past year or so (green line in chart below), and this is reflected in the wide range of estimates from 10k on the low side to around 40k top side. Based on a 20k rise in employment and an unchanged participation rate (66.7%), markets forecast the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1% (range: 4-4.2%).
January recap: Unemployment rate holds at multi-month lows
The national unemployment rate remained at 4.1% at the start of the year, defying an expected increase to 4.2%. With the participation rate also unchanged at 66.7%, a relatively modest rise in employment of 17.8k was sufficient to keep unemployment steady, in line with its lows from the first half of 2025. Unemployment had only a few months earlier climbed as high as 4.3%.
Employment surged by 68.5k in December, its strongest rise in 8 months, so while the increase in January was much more modest, it was still a respectable outcome - especially as it was driven by the full-time segment (50.5k). The weakness was in part-time employment (-32.7k), though caution is warranted due to seasonal effects amid the peak summer holiday period.
On the topic of summer holidays, hours worked surprised with a 0.6% rise in the month to be up by 1.6% over the year. The ABS attributed the increase to fewer workers than usual taking annual leave this January than has historically been the case.
