Australia's goods trade surplus rebounded to $3.9bn in September, broadly in line with expectations ($4bn) after falling to a 7-year low of $1.1bn in August. Exports (7.9%) increased at multiples of the rise in imports (1.1%), driven by non-monetary gold (62.2%) amid record high prices and strong demand for the safe-haven commodity.
The trade surplus widened from a 7-year low in August ($1.1bn) to $3.9bn in September, averaging $3.8bn across the quarter. The monthly trade figures through 2025 have been highly volatile, reflecting developments in underlying global trade flows as the US administration has brought its regime of broad-based tariffs to fruition.
On a quarterly basis, the goods surplus increased to $11.4bn from $10.7bn in the June quarter, a rise of 7%. This came on the back of exports expanding by 1.9% to $131bn, outpacing a 1.4% lift in imports to $120bn. Given the movements in trade prices in the quarter: exports -0.9% and imports -0.4%, goods trade looks to have broadly neutral implications for GDP growth in Q3. Trade in services - not captured in these data - will largely determine how the net exports component has contributed to quarterly GDP.
To the monthly figures and exports rose at pace in September, up 7.9% from August - the sharpest month-on-month rise since April 2022 - to $44.6bn. Annual growth swung from -4% to 9.7% on September's result. Record high prices and strong demand underpinned a 62.2% surge in non-monetary gold exports, after the commodity inexplicably declined in August (-47.2%). Much of the growth in exports over the past year has come from non-monetary gold (included in the grey bars in chart below).
Export growth in September was also supported by iron ore seeing its fastest rise (9.7%) since the start of 2023, while coal (4.1%) and metals exports (14.1%) advanced. Overall, non-rural goods lifted by 3.7% in September, more than rebounding from August's 2.9% decline. Rural goods rose slightly in the month (0.7%), with meat (2.7%) the key driver.
Import spending slowed to a 1.1% rise in September ($40.6bn) from a 3.3% gain in August; however, annual growth increased from 8.2% to 11.1% - its fastest pace since February 2024. September's rise in imports was driven entirely by capital goods (6.7%), with declines coming through in consumption (-1.2%) and intermediate goods (-0.4%).
