Australia's trade surplus hit wides going back to early 2024 coming in at $7.3bn in July from $5.4bn in June. The outcome defied expectations to narrow to $4.9bn. The wider surplus for July ($1.2bn) came as exports (3.3%) rose at pace for the second month running, with exports to the US surging (126%) after the Trump administration's 90-day pause on its liberation day tariffs. Meanwhile, imports (-1.3%) notched back-to-back falls.
Australia's unbeaten run of monthly trade surpluses now stands at 91, with the trade surplus coming in at $7.3bn in July - its widest since February 2024. The position on trade in any given month is the difference between revenue earned from exports ($46bn in July) and spending on imports ($38.7bn). The July result followed surpluses of $2.1bn in May and $5.4bn in June, taking the 3-month average to $4.9bn - levels that were last seen on that basis around the turn of the year.
Export revenue increased by 3.3% to move north of $46bn in July to highs since late 2023. A key factor in this was the Trump administration earlier announcing a 90-day pause on the tariffs it imposed on its trading partners back on April 2. Australia was hit with the baseline tariff of 10%, but with that paused exports to the US market surged 126% to $4.8bn. This is down from the earlier high of $6bn seen in January, ahead of 'liberation day'.
Across the key export categories, non-monetary gold - of which the US is a major destination - accelerated by 8.3%, sending the value of exports of the yellow metal to new record highs above $6bn. Non-rural goods rose 1.9% for the month on gains in iron ore (1.5%), coal (1.6%) and LNG (5.1%). Metals (ex-non-monetary gold) lifted 7.4%.
Rural goods saw a strong gain of 5.9% - their most since liberation day - with meat exports rising by 7.2%. Exports of domestic beef to the US were targeted by President Trump in his initial tariff announcements. Gains more broadly were seen across exports of cereals (2.1%), wool (3.9%) and other products (7.3%).
Import spending declined by 1.3% in July to $38.7bn following a 1.5% fall in June. Annual growth has slowed to 2.6%. Consumption goods (-2.6%) have been the main source of weakness, down 7.9% over the past two months. Spending on vehicle imports, electrical items, clothing and footwear, and toys books and leisure goods has declined, though this looks to be price-driven; trade volume data reported through the week has identified strength in demand across these items. According to the National Accounts, import prices fell 0.6% in the June quarter, with the Australian dollar appreciating. Against the decline in consumption goods, capital goods (2.6%) and intermediate goods (1.1%) advanced in July.
