Australia's goods trade surplus reached wides since the start of 2024 after increasing to $7.1bn in November from $5.7bn in October (from $5.9bn). A slightly narrower surplus of $5.6bn was expected by markets. Exports accelerated by almost 5% in November, their sharpest rise in 15 months to defy a broader downtrend since mid-2023 alongside declining commodity prices. Imports lifted 1.7% for the month as higher oil prices pushed up the cost of fuel imports.
The goods surplus lifted to $7.1bn in November, its largest since January 2024 ($9.3bn) following outcomes of $5.7bn in October and $4.2bn in September. For the 3 months through November, the goods surplus averaged $5.7bn to be up marginally from the cycle lows seen through the middle of 2024. At its peak in mid-2022, the 3-month average for the trade surplus was pressing $16bn. The compression seen since reflects the retracement in commodity prices on global exchanges; the RBA's index of commodity prices is down more than 35% (USD terms) since peaking in 2022.
Monthly exports lifted by 4.8% to come in at $43.8bn in November (-5%yr). The uplift was driven by an 18.1% surge from rural goods - its strongest one-month rise in almost 4 years - with rural products (34.6%), wool (10.2%), cereal (9.2%) and meat (4%) all moving higher.
Exports were also supported by a 2.1% lift from non-rural goods on gains across the major resources: iron ore 4%, coal 1.5% and LNG 3.2%. Non-monetary gold also supported the lift in exports with a 10.3% rise in November.
Imports advanced 1.7% month-on-month to $36.7bn to be up by 6.2% across the year. Intermediate goods increased by 1.2% as fuel imports lifted by 3.4%. Even with this increase, weaker oil prices have seen the value of fuel imports fall by 21.5% over the past year. Capital goods advanced by 3.3% in the month on increases in a range of equipment categories. Consumption goods softened in November (-0.5%) but remain at fairly elevated levels.
