Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Australia's trade surplus steady at $5.6bn in August

Broadly offsetting movements in exports and imports held Australia's monthly trade surplus at $5.6bn in August, essentially in line with expectations ($5.5bn). The lower surpluses seen in recent months reflect exports retracing due to lower commodity prices and import spending remaining resilient.  



The trade surplus in August ($5.6bn) was unchanged from the prior month after July's surplus was revised down from $6bn in today's report. Although off its recent lows, the monthly surplus has seen significant compression over the past 18 months on lower commodity prices and elevated import spending. 


Exports declined for the first time since April softening by 0.2% in August to $43.2bn, down 7.4% over the year. Falls in rural goods (-3.9%) and non-monetary gold (-3.4%) weighed on exports; however, that was largely offset by a lift in non-rural goods (0.8%) on the back of higher coal exports (7.3%). Other major commodities were soft: iron ore -0.5% and LNG -1.8%.   


Imports declined for the third month running with a 0.2% fall coming through in August. However, imports remain elevated ($37.6bn) and are up on 12 months ago (3.4%). The decline in the latest month was driven entirely by consumption goods (-4.2%) led by a fall in vehicle imports (-7.5%). By contrast, capital goods (1.6%) and intermediate goods (1.8%) advanced in August, the latter driven by higher fuel prices.