Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Thursday, September 5, 2024

Australia's trade surplus widens to $6bn in July

Australia's trade surplus widened to $6bn in July - its highest level in 5 months - on the back of a rise in exports (0.7%) and softer imports (-0.8%). The July result defied expectations for a narrowing in the monthly surplus to $5bn from a downwardly revised $5.4bn in June. 



July's trade surplus came in at $6bn, up from $5.4bn in June but remains around its recent lows. Throughout 2024, the trade surplus has narrowed materially as lower commodity prices have weighed on export revenue, while import spending - boosted by inflation - has risen. For the 3 months to July, the trade surplus averaged $5.5bn, just above the $5bn low in May. 


Export revenue increased for the third month running with a 0.7% lift coming through in July to $43.8bn (-1.4%yr). The main driver was a 6% lift in rural goods - adding to June's 7.5% gain - as exports of meat (4.2%) and other rural products (12.4%) advanced. This was partially offset by an easing in non-rural goods (-0.4%) with exports of coal (-1.7%) and LNG (-4.5%) hit by lower prices. Iron ore exports (0.3%) were broadly flat in the month. 


Import spending weakened by 0.8% in July, declining for the first time since April to come in at $37.8bn (3.0%yr). This result was driven by a 3.7% fall in intermediate goods as the value of fuel imports slumped 7.6% alongside lower oil prices. This weakness was moderated by gains in consumption goods (1.6%) and capital goods (1.6%).