Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Thursday, June 6, 2024

Australia's trade surplus widens to $6.5bn in April

Australia's goods trade surplus widened more than expected to $6.5bn in April (vs $5.5bn) from a revised $4.8bn in March ($5bn reported initially). Despite export revenue falling in the month (-2.5%), a slump in import spending (-7.2%) saw the surplus widen. 



The surplus on goods trade essentially reversed the narrowing it saw in March, rebounding to $6.5bn in April. The 3-month average for the goods surplus came down from $7.1bn to $6bn, its lowest since the start of 2021. Over recent months, exports have trended lower (reflecting lower commodity prices) while imports have remained elevated.  


In April, exports fell for the third month in succession declining by 2.5% to $43.3bn, its lowest since December 2021. Non-rural goods sustained a 3.2% fall, with the major commodities all weakening: iron ore -4.3%, coal -4% and LNG -4.9%. The underlying detail from the ABS suggested these declines reflected lower prices and weaker volumes. A 3.9% decline came through in rural goods on falls in cereals (-7.5%) and meat (-3.7%).  


Imports (-7.5%m/m) posted their largest decline since last November. Nonetheless, import spending was still up by 2% over the year. The weakness was broadly based across consumption goods (-5.4%), capital goods (-5.8%) and intermediate goods (-9.6%). Consumption goods were weighed by clothing and footwear (-14.4%); capital goods saw declines in ADP (-22%) and machinery and industrial equipment (-6.2%); and intermediate goods retraced on industrial supplies (-19%) fuel imports (-8.9%).