Australia's goods trade surplus rebounded to an 8-month high at $11.4bn in November (vs $7.3bn expected), widening sharply from $7.7bn in October. The upside surprise in the trade surplus was driven mostly by imports posting their largest month-on-month fall (-7.9%) since February-23, though a solid rise in exports (1.7%) was also a factor. The November result came against the trend seen through much of 2023, with the surplus narrowing as declining commodity prices weighed on exports while import spending held up near record highs.
The trade surplus at $11.4bn printed at its widest since March and is up substantially from a 2½-year low ($6.1bn) seen just two months earlier. The 3-month average for the trade surplus increased to $8.4bn, lifting from a low of $7.9bn over the past couple of months.
The value of the nation's exports lifted by 1.7% in November to A$46.3bn. But export values are down 8.2% over the year and are 16.4% below the June 2022 peak ($55.4bn). This decline has been driven by a retracement in the value of coal exports, which halved from a high of $14.9bn in June-22 to $7.5bn in August-23. In November, however, coal exports bounced 6.8% (to $8.2bn), while iron ore exports also lifted by 3.1% ($16.8bn), driving the non-rural goods category to a 2.4% month-on-month rise. Rural goods exports were little changed ($5.9bn) rising by just 0.3% in the month.
Import spending saw its sharpest fall in 9 months declining by 7.9% in November to A$34.9bn, also a 9-month low. The key drivers in this decline were: consumption goods (-14%), led by a sharp drop in the arrival of new vehicles into the country (-26%), and intermediate goods (-3.8%) as declining global oil prices saw the value of fuel imports retrace at their fastest pace in 11 months (-10.2%). Further, capital goods imports also contracted (-2.8%); however, the value of these imports remains up 10.5% on the year. This partly reflects inflationary effects, though the Q3 National Accounts reported inflation-adjusted business investment in equipment and machinery rose strongly (8.8%) through the year.
