Australia's trade surplus came in more elevated than expected in September at $5.6bn from $2.6bn in the month prior. Exports advanced after recent weakness while import spending pulled back after a reopening-inspired boost. For the September quarter, net exports are likely to subtract notably from GDP growth, unwinding a positive contribution in Q2.
International Trade — September | By the numbers
- Australia's trade surplus increased by $3.013bn in September to $5.63bn to come in well above the median estimate of $3.7bn. August's surplus was revised lower to $2.618bn from $2.643bn.
- Export earnings lifted by 3.9%m/m to $33.737bn after falling in each of the two preceding months (-4.5% in July and -4.1% in August), moderating the annual decline to -19.7% from -22.5%.
- Imports halted a run of 3 straight monthly gains with a 5.9% fall in September to $28.108bn. This deepened the annual decline to -22.3% from -15.0%.
International Trade — September | The details
September's trade surplus surprised to the upside of estimates coming in at $5.63bn, though it had declined sharply in July (-$3.5bn to $4.4bn) and then in August (-$1.7bn to $2.6bn). As a result, the trade surplus over Q3 was much lower at $12.6bn than in the previous quarter ($22.7bn), representing a decline of 44.5% (before seasonal adjustments are factored in). For the quarter, imports were up 3.6% on the reopening rebound while exports declined by 6.6%.
Export details for September were broadly positive but were skewed towards volatile non-monetary gold. Earnings from goods and services exported were up 3.9% (or $1.265bn) in the month, with non-monetary gold the driving factor at 71.7%m/m (or $0.989bn). Non-rural goods lifted by 0.9% ($0.209bn), led by metal ores and minerals (includes iron ore) ($0.192bn). Rural goods were a touch softer (-1.6% or -$0.05bn) on weakness in meat. Services exports increased by 2.3% (or $0.117bn) with inbound travel surprising with a lift of 4% amid the international border closure.
Turning to imports, aggregate expenditure declined by 5.9% in September (or -$1.747bn) to $28.108bn on broad-based weakness. Intermediate goods (those used within production) pulled back by 6.6% (-$0.629bn), with a decline in oil prices the driving factor. Consumption goods fell 3.9% (-$0.358bn) with clothing, footwear and textiles the main contributor. Meanwhile, capital goods were weaker for a second straight month in falling by 3.3% (-$0.199bn) after a 6.8% slide in August, though this was after a reopening surge of 18.1% in July. Services imports were also softer this month easing by 1.6% and remain severely affected by the overseas travel ban.
International Trade — September | Insights
