Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Monday, August 31, 2020

Virus concerns return

The ABS Household Impacts of COVID-19 survey for August reported a rise in virus-related concerns in Australia, with the impact of the outbreak in Victoria spilling over into the other states. This was the first report in a new longitudinal survey from the ABS looking into the response of households to the pandemic and is similar to the first round of 8 surveys conducted between April and July with around 1,500 respondents. 

In this survey, the main topic was around the wellbeing of households. As of mid-August, over the preceding 4-week period 46% of respondents reported that they felt nervous "at least some of the time". Despite the vast differences in conditions in Victoria (in a stringent shutdown) and the rest of the nation (operating under a relaxed set of restrictions), the level of nervousness in Victoria (48%) was similar to Australia overall (45%). Though we are comparing two different groups here, the first round of surveys reported nervousness in mid-April was at 35% before it declined to 25% by late June a little more than a month after the reopening of the nation started. A similar trend was evident across a range of other feelings, with the chart (below) highlighting no clear differences in Victoria to Australia as a whole.  


Where the differences did show up was in the level of participation in activities over the week to mid-August. With stringent activity restrictions in place and mobility in general reduced, Victoria predictably lagged behind the rest of the nation which has been able to maintain progress on the path to recovery with new virus cases staying under control. 

Source: ABS 

The survey also contained details about household finances. Overall, levels of household financial stress appear to remain low but have increased slightly since the topic was addressed by the first group of respondents in mid-June. In this latest survey, 87% of Australians expected they would be able to meet all their bills over the next 3 months, down from 94% in mid-June. When asked of their capacity to raise the sum of $2k for something important within a week, 77% reported they would be able to do so compared with 88% previously. Meanwhile, regarding the use of the Federal Government's income support measures, payment of household bills, mortgage and rent payments and savings remained highly prominent.