Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Monday, June 15, 2020

Australians to remain cautious as restrictions ease

As the nation progressively works through the re-opening process after its period of COVID-19 lockdown, the latest ABS household impacts survey found that Australians generally feel comfortable in resuming essential types of activity but will be reluctant to re-engage in activities that involve large gatherings and travelling. Today's report was the 5th in the ABS's line of surveys that have been monitoring the responses of households to the pandemic and they continue to provide important insights into the behavioral and confidence effects the pandemic has caused. The topic of this survey related mainly to health precautions and the comfort in returning to normal activities as restrictions ease. It was conducted in late May (26-29th) and sampled around 1,000 Australians.

With restrictions having started easing across the nation from mid-May, the focus turns to the speed and the extent to which people are prepared to re-engage in what was previously normal economic activity. The types of activity Australians were most comfortable in resuming could all be classified as being for essential purposes including; seeing a doctor or health professional in person, attending their workplace and sending children to school or child care. At the other end of the scale, the activities that Australians were most uncomfortable resuming were; using public transport (59%), travelling by air (63%), attending indoor gatherings with more than 100 guests (66%), and attending large public events (76%). The full breakdown is shown in the chart below (click to expand).

Source: ABS

Questions were then posed as to what would alleviate the concerns people had in resuming normal activities. The two standout responses were the development of a vaccine (64%) and lower daily infection rates (61%). A proven effective treatment was also seen as a high priority (49%). Interestingly, developments such as higher testing rates, less pressure on the healthcare system and more widespread use of the COVIDSafe app ranked well down the list (click chart to expand).   

Source: ABS

In terms of the activities Australians would most like to be able to return to as or when restrictions ease the top 3 responses were; having larger gatherings of family and friends, dining in at restaurants or cafes and travelling domestically. Some of the activities listed in the chart below are already permitted in some form, but what is interesting is the tension that exists between the nature of some of these activities and the level of caution identified earlier. For example, 63% of respondents had said they would be uncomfortable in resuming air travel, yet 58% said they were most looking forward to domestic travel opening up again. Meanwhile, activities such as shopping in retail stores, going to venues including cinemas or licensed premises and attending sporting events would all appear incompatible with the concerns raised in this survey around large gatherings.            

Source: ABS

While restrictions are gradually being eased back, this survey highlights that precautionary behaviour is still likely to govern the behaviour of households in terms of the type of activity they choose to engage in. Short of a vaccine being developed, it would appear Australians want to see lower daily infection rates or an effective treatment being established before their level of risk aversion will ease.