Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Australians adhering to social distancing

The ABS debuted its 'Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey' this morning with the results indicating that Australians are adhering to social distancing directives in response to an elevated level of concern over the risk posed to their personal health by the pandemic. Last week's labour force data indicated that conditions had not been materially impacted by COVID-19 over the first half of March, though today's survey provided a more timely analysis of the situation indicating that by the end of the month unemployment had risen more precipitously and hours worked had declined sharply.

Vindicating the progress the nation has achieved in flattening its infection curve over recent weeks, today's survey highlighted broad-based compliance with social distancing practices by Australian households. The top three measures being taken were; "Keeping distance from people" (98%), "Avoiding public spaces" (88%) and "Cancelling personal gatherings" (87%). Further down the list was "Working from home" with a little over 40% of all respondents indicating they had shifted to this arrangement.   

Source: ABS

If today's survey is anything to go by, concerns that Australians may become complacent over health risks due to its progress in slowing the rate of infection may be ill-founded. This survey highlighted an elevated level of concern around the risks to personal health posed by the COVID-19 outbreak with 2 out of 3 respondents between 18 and 64 years and 71% of people aged 65 and over saying they were either "concerned or very concerned" about the situation. Last week, Westpac and Melbourne Institute reported that consumer sentiment according to their monthly index had collapsed by its most in a single month (-17.7%) in April with an extreme level of pessimism over the economic outlook for the next 12 months evident. The mix of elevated health-related concerns, particularly in the absence of a vaccine, and a downbeat view on the economy indicates that even if social distancing measures are soon eased to some degree, activity in a more re-opened economy will be coming up against dual headwinds of severe intensity. 

  Source: ABS 

On the labour market, 63% of respondents reported they were in a job in the first week of April, down 3 percentage points from the start of March. However, even for those still in work in April, there had been a notable impact on hours worked with the proportion of employees engaged in paid hours falling by 8 percentage points over the month from 64% to 56%. Furthermore,  the proportion of workers still employed but not working paid hours lifted by 5 percentage points to 8% by the first week of April. Overall, the survey indicated that 26% of respondents were now working fewer hours than they were back in March, with nearly all of that group saying it was due to COVID-19 (see chart, below). On the other hand, 12% of respondents said there were now working more hours as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. Meanwhile, 61% of respondents said they had not had their work hours impacted one way or another.   

  Source: ABS  

The Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey is based on a sample of 3,000 households, with the ABS reporting it received responses from 1,158 households (around 39%).