Independent Australian and global macro analysis

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Preview: Labour Force Survey — December

Australia's all-important Labour Force Survey is due to be released by the ABS at 11:30am (AEDT) today, which will cover the month of December. Markets assess the chance of a February RBA rate cut as slightly better than a 50/50 prospect, and today's report could be influential in lifting expectations further. 

As it stands Labour Force Survey 


Employment contracted by 24.8k in October (revised from -19.0k) but recovered in November to post a much stronger-than-expected 39.9k increase against the consensus forecast for a gain of 15.0k. This ensured the 
annual pace of employment growth was little changed at around 2.0%, though this is near its softest pace since early to mid 2017. With the participation rate holding at 66.0%, the strong employment outcome comfortably outpaced growth in the labour force (23.1k) in the month and as a result, the unemployment rate unwound October's increase falling from 5.3% to 5.2%. Similarly, underutilisation (13.8% to 13.5%) and underemployment (8.5% to 8.3%) also fell to cancel out increases in October. Hours worked lifted by a modest 0.2% in November, with the annual pace firming from 1.4% to 1.7%. 

For a full review of November's report see here   




Market expectations Labour Force Survey

The consensus call from Bloomberg's survey of economists is for employment to rise by a modest 12.0k in December, with estimates ranging from -10.0k to 20.0k. No change in the unemployment rate is expected from its current level of 5.2%, though this is on the low side of estimates that range up to 5.4%, while the rate participation is forecast to remain at 66.0% (range: 66.0% to 66.1%). 




What to watch Labour Force Survey

The employment number is key in today's release. In the past 3 months, the outcomes have been; 13.3k in September, -24.8k in October and 39.9k in November, averaging 9.5k per month. This is well down from the 3-month average to September of 27.9k, in which employment increased by a total of 83.7k in the quarter. Employment clearly looks to be weaker in Q4, though the extent of the slowdown has been difficult to gauge given recent volatility with December's outcome to provide greater clarity here.