International Trade — March | By the numbers
- March's trade surplus was $A4.949bn, coming in stronger than the market forecast for $4.5bn. February's surplus was revised up to $5.14bn from the initially reported figure of $4.801bn.
- Export earnings declined by -1.8% in March to $39.34bn, as annual growth eased to 11.9% (prior rev: +0.6%m/m, +13.8%Y/Y)
- Import expenditure fell by -1.5% over the month to $34.391bn, resulting in annual growth decelerating to 0.9% (prior rev: -0.7%m/m, +4.1%Y/Y)
International Trade — March | The details
On the export side, the nation's earnings declined by 1.8% in the month, or by -$703m in nominal terms to $39.34bn. That was mainly due to a sizeable fall of $626m from the often volatile non-monetary gold category. Earnings from non-rural goods also declined by $189m in March. Within this, iron-ore export earnings fell by a sharp $1.178bn in the month, due mainly to adverse weather conditions impacting shipments, while coal increased by $827m due to a strong rise in volumes after weakness in February. There was also some weakness from 'other mineral fuels' (mainly LNG) falling by $64m on lower prices. Meanwhile, services exports recorded a modest fall of $18m. Against those declines, rural goods lifted by $129m, driven mostly by meat.
Turning to imports, total expenditure declined by 1.5% in March, or by -$512m to $34.391bn. This was weighed by capital goods falling by $344m, reflecting notable weakness in industrial transport and equipment. Consumption goods also fell by $294m, due mostly to non-industrial transport equipment (vehicles), and services imports declined by $90m. Intermediate goods increased by $197m, largely reflecting the impact of higher oil prices.
International Trade — March | Insights
Australia's monthly trade surplus averaged a very strong $4.914bn over Q1, reflecting the tailwind from surging commodity prices, particularly in iron ore following the tailings dam disaster in Brazil. Based on the ABS' preliminary estimate, the trade surplus for Q1 lifted by $5.561bn to $14.151. This will provide a sizeable boost to national income and will flow through to higher government revenues. Looking towards next month's GDP data, net trade will likely add modestly to activity in Q1, driven by weakness from imports (declining import volumes add to real GDP growth). Exports lifted strongly over the quarter, though that is heavily driven by rising commodity prices. Net trade was a slight drag (-0.1ppt) on growth in Q4.
