International Trade — January | By the numbers
- The trade surplus increased by $780m in January to $A4.549bn, far eclipsing the market forecast for a $3.0bn surplus. December's surplus was revised up to $3.769bn from $3.681bn.
- Export earnings surged by $1.9bn, or by +5.0%, in January to $A39.937bn, with annual growth at 15.9% (prior rev: -1.1%m/m, +16.3%Y/Y)
- The import bill rebounded by $1.12bn, or by +3.3%, in the month to $35.388bn, driving annual growth to 6.3% (prior rev: -5.5%m/m, -0.5%Y/Y)
International Trade — January | The details
The surge in export earnings of $1.9bn was driven by the volatile non-monetary gold category, which increased by $1.37bn. There were modest increases for rural goods (+$97m), non-rural goods (+$396m) and services ($46m).
Commodities exports are included under 'non-rural goods', with the ABS reporting a lift for coal (+$351m), iron ore (+$279m) and 'other mineral fuels' (LNG, +$51m). Those increases look to be the result of a surge in prices for iron ore and more modest increases for coal and LNG.
Imports plummeted in December but bounced back in January. The total value of goods and services imported increased by $1.12bn. The main contributions came from capital goods (+$737m) and consumption goods (+$483m), though these categories drove the sharp decline in December (consumption goods -$980m and capital goods -$627m). Elsewhere, intermediate goods lifted by $157m, though services declined by $191m.
International Trade — January | Insights
A strong start to the quarter from trade after a disappointing outcome in Q4. Export volumes were down slightly in Q4, reportedly impacted by supply disruptions in the resources sector, and are expected to improve in Q1 and over 2019 as a whole. Though real GDP was soft yesterday, the nominal side of the economy increased strongly and is benefitting from a boost to national income through rising commodity prices and an associated lift in the terms of trade.
