Australian retail sales pull back in December

Australian retail sales declined heavily by 3.9% in December, their first monthly fall in 2022. Black Friday discounting is increasingly pulling Christmas spending forward into November, amplified in 2022 by cost-of-living pressures. Large unwinds in December sales were also seen in the pandemic-affected years of 2020 (-3.3%) and 2021 (-3.7%). A moderation in retail sales over Q4 (0.9%) raises some questions over the outlook for household spending in 2023, with the effects of RBA rate hikes yet to fully take hold.    

Headline sales fell by 3.9% in December, with discretionary spending (excluding basic food) seeing a much larger 6.5% contraction. This was after Black Friday sales pushed up headline retail by 1.7% in November, with a 2.7% lift in discretionary spending. The declines across the discretionary categories was broad based in December: department stores -14.3%, clothing and footwear -13.1%, household goods -7.8%, other goods -4.6%, though restaurants and cafes held flat. Food sales lifted by 0.3%m/m.     

For comparison, discretionary-led pullbacks in December were seen in 2020 (-4.6%) and 2021 (-7.1%), though in both years reopenings from earlier lockdowns, together with Black Friday, had boosted November sales (6.2% in 2020 and 13.2% in 2021).  

Over the quarter, retail sales slowed to a 0.9% rise from 2.5% in Q3. The slowdown in the discretionary categories was more pronounced, from 2.6% to 0.2%. Besides the unwind from Black Friday, another factor behind the slowdown may be the surge in holiday travel over the peak summer period. Increased spending could be going to services at the expense of the more goods-based categories reflected in the retail data. That said, the headwinds from cost-of-living pressures, RBA rate hikes and weak consumer sentiment could be starting to show up in weakening discretionary spending.    

Macro (Re)view (27/1) | Looking to the week ahead

It was a quieter week for markets due to holidays across Asia and a relatively limited data flow. Markets also are firmly focused on the week ahead, where the docket includes policy meetings from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England and many key data points. In Australia, markets moved to price in more RBA tightening as the latest inflation data came in above expectations; the local currency also supported by upbeat US equity sentiment. 

US data consistent with a slowing economy 

Further signs of the slowing in the US economy came to hand this week, leaving intact the markets' view that Fed rate cuts later on in the year remain in prospect. December quarter GDP growth was stronger than expected expanding by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, though that outcome was boosted by net trade and inventories. Underlying domestic demand was a soft 0.2%q/q, while January's flash PMI reading at 46.6 indicated activity was slowing. Data on personal consumption showed that momentum in household spending has softened. Both nominal (-0.2%m/m) and real (-0.3%m/m) consumption growth declined for the second month running. The saving rate has risen over the past couple of months from 2.5% to 3.4% in December, suggesting households were moderating their spending into year-end. However, spending still remains well above pre-pandemic levels, supported by a strong labour market in which weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level since April last year. 

The Fed has achieved progress on the inflation front going into next week's meeting. In December, its preferred core PCE deflator gauge slowed from 4.7% to 4.4%yr, a pace below the 4.8% projected by the FOMC. The momentum in underlying inflation pressures eased notably over the final quarter of the year. The 3-month annualised pace in the core PCE deflator was 2.9% in December, its slowest pace since January 2021 and down from 4.5% at the end of the previous quarter. 

Australian inflation rises to new 30-year highs 

An elevation in both headline (7.8%Y/Y) and core inflation (6.9%Y/Y) to new 30-year highs saw markets moving to price in the continuation of the RBA's rate hiking cycle at the February meeting. These outcomes were close to RBA forecasts (8% headline and 6.5% trimmed mean) but above market expectations on the day. Despite easing pressures in home building costs and grocery prices, headline inflation was 1.9% in the December quarter (up from 1.8% in Q3) as travel costs surged during the peak summer holiday period (10.9%), and electricity prices spiked (8.6%) as government rebates faded (my full Q4 CPI review is available here). 

This looks likely to be the peak for inflation in Australia. The 3-month and 6-month annualised rates at 7.7% and 7.6% respectively are around the year-ended CPI rate (7.8%), while price pressures coming through the pipeline for producers (0.7%) and from imports (4.3%) moderated to their slowest quarterly increases in more than a year. That is also consistent with the signals from the December NAB Business Survey, with growth in firms' input and selling prices all slowing. 

Looking ahead to the next RBA meeting, the inflation forecasts are due to be refreshed and this will ultimately be key for the hiking cycle. Currently, the RBA forecasts headline inflation to slow to 4.7% by the end of the year (3.8% core) and then to 3.2% in 2024. Broadly speaking, the main driver of inflation is switching from goods to services, similar to many other comparable economies. Throughout this year, the disinflationary pulse from goods will increase, though prices in the service sector are still on the rise. The balance of those competing forces will largely shape the path back to 2-3% inflation. 

Growth pulse improving in Europe

The reappraisal of recession calls for the euro area has been somewhat validated by January's flash reading of the PMI gauge returning to growth territory. The composite PMI lifted from 49.3 to 50.2, a 7-month high, on the back of rising services (50.7) and manufacturing activity (48.8). Improving sentiment in the euro area has come as an energy crisis looks to have been avoided, with energy prices falling due to milder winter temperatures, while China's more accelerated exit from its Covid zero has also helped. Next week sees the ECB returning for its first policy meeting of the year where the Governing Council is expected to hike its key rates by 50bps. 

Source: S&P Global 

Bank of Canada to hit the pause button 

A 25bps rate hike from the Bank of Canada this week looks to be the last for its tightening cycle. With rates now at 4.5%, up 425bps since the start of last year, the BoC's guidance is that it "... expects to hold the policy rate at its current level" while it assesses the cumulative effects of monetary tightening on the economy. In the BoC's latest Monetary Policy Report, it was noted that while there is still an excess of demand, the early effects of its tightening cycle are showing in the housing market and on household spending. These headwinds are expected to lead to a stalling of growth by the middle of the year. Disinflationary pulses from falling energy prices and easing supply chain pressures are forecast to slow inflation from 6.7% to 3% in mid-2023, before returning to the 2% target in 2024. 

Source: Bank of Canada 

Australian Q4 CPI 1.9%, 7.8%Y/Y

Australian inflation surprised to the upside of expectations in the December quarter, likely confirming another rate hike from the RBA on its return in February. Surging costs for travel during the peak holiday period, unaffected by restrictions for the first time since the pandemic, and the unwinding of electricity rebates offset easing price pressures in new home building and groceries. The drivers of inflation continued to rotate and a disinflationary pulse from goods will help to lower inflation through 2023, but services inflation is likely to remain more persistent. 

Consumer Price Index — Q4 | By the numbers 

• Headline CPI printed at 1.9% in the December quarter, stronger than expected by markets (1.6%) and up slightly from Q3's 1.8% rise. Annual inflation lifted from 7.3% to 7.8%.  

• The average of the three underlying CPI measures was 1.8%q/q, unchanged from Q3, though base effects saw the annual pace increase to 6.8% from 5.9%.

• Trimmed mean was 1.7%q/q — above the 1.5% rise expected but slightly down from Q3 (revised up to 1.9%)  — rising to 6.9% over the year from 6.1% (vs 6.5% expected).

• Weighted median firmed to 1.6%q/q (from 1.4%) to be up by 5.8% over the year
• CPI excluding 'volatile items' increased by 2% in the quarter, a touch softer than in Q3 (2.1%), though the annual rate accelerated to 7.6% from 6.7%. 

Consumer Price Index — Q4 | The details 

Inflation printed at new highs dating back to 1990 as the headline CPI lifted to 7.8% while the trimmed mean (or core rate) moved up 6.9%, a 34-year high. Those outcomes are up substantially from 12 months ago (3.5% headline and 2.6% trimmed mean) as pandemic-related and supply disruptions alongside very robust post-lockdown household spending have caused prices to rise rapidly in Australia and across the globe.

In the December quarter, although there was a notable weakening in new home building costs and grocery prices - both major drivers of inflation over the past year - that was offset by price rises in other ares. Holiday travel costs surged by 10.9% overall in the quarter (13.3% for domestic and 7.6% for international), adding 0.6ppt to the inflation rate alone, reflecting very strong demand over the Christmas/new year period, unaffected by border restrictions for the first time since 2019. Associated demand for dining out and higher overhead costs saw restaurant meals rising another 2.1%q/q. Electricity prices were up by 8.6% in the quarter, contributing 0.25ppt to quarterly inflation as state government rebates applied in the previous quarter unwound. 

As has occured in other economies across the globe, there is now a switching in the inflation drivers underway from goods (1.6%q/q) to services (2.1%q/q). The easing of supply disruptions over the course of the pandemic and spending rotating back to services has seen goods inflation slow over recent quarters. This will work to bring down the annual rate, which is only now at the peaks, and in the process help lower the overall inflation rate through 2023. 

Services inflation, however, is still rising due to price increases in areas such as rents, utilities and many everyday household services. Rents (4%) and utilities (10.4%) saw their fastest annual rises since 2012 and 2013 respectively. The pace of the rise in household services costs in Q4 (2.9%) has previously only been seen during the reopenings from lockdowns over the past couple of decades. 

A specific area worth highlighting is new home building costs. At the peaks in Q3, new home building costs had surged by almost 21% over the year, with a record volume of houses under construction running into supply constraints for materials and labour. Over 2022, this component added more than 1.5ppts to inflation. But the unwind is now underway. Supply pressures are easing and the interest rate sensitivity of the sector has led to the demand for financing to weaken substantially over recent months.  

Consumer Price Index — Q4 | Insights 

Today's inflation outcomes are stronger than forecast by markets but close to RBA estimates for the headline (8%) and core rate (6.5%). The upshot is that a 25bps rate hike in February looks likely and diminishes the momentum that was building for a pause. Headline CPI on both a 3-month (7.7%) and 6-month annualised basis (7.6%) suggest Q4 is likely to be the peak for inflation. The degree to which inflation slows will largely depend on how the disinflationary pulse coming through in goods prices and other areas such as new home building plays out with price pressures in services components.   

Preview: Australian Q4 CPI

Australian inflation is expected to have risen further in the December quarter to new highs since the early 1990s (data due 11:30am AEDT). This will mark the peak in inflation, likely lower than forecast by the RBA. A softening global inflationary backdrop and signs of slowing price pressures in Australia may prompt the RBA to revise its timeline for an earlier return of inflation to the 2-3% target range. 

As it stands | CPI 

Inflation pressures broadened in the September quarter rising by 1.8% on both a headline and trimmed mean (excluding volatile items) basis. Annual inflation was running at its highest in three decades, with headline CPI elevating from 6.1% to 7.3% and from 4.9% to 6.1% for the trimmed mean. 

New home building costs (3.7%q/q) moderated but continued to contribute strongly to inflation; these costs are up by almost 21% over the year as strong demand from a record number of homes under construction has run up against shortages of materials and labour. Grocery prices lifted sharply in the quarter (3.2%) reflecting supply impacts from recent floods and higher input costs for producers. 

A new source of inflation pressure came through in household utilities (4.8%q/q) as gas and electricity prices lifted in response to rising wholesale prices, though government rebates held back much larger price rises from flowing through. Pandemic-related factors were continuing to push up a range of durable goods prices, including furniture (6.3%q/q) and new vehicles (0.5%q/q), as well as for reopened services in holiday travel (4%q/q) and dining out (2.9%q/q). 

Market expectations | CPI

Market consensus is for an easing in quarterly headline CPI to 1.6%, with estimates ranging between 1.5% to 2.2%, and for the annual pace to firm to 7.5%. Analysis of the ABS's monthly CPI indicator suggests the consensus estimate should be around the mark for today's quarterly outcome. The 3-month change in the monthly CPI for the period ending in November was 1.6%, and as the back history indicates, this has proven to be an accurate guide to the eventual quarterly change in the CPI. The median estimate for trimmed mean inflation is 1.5%q/q and 6.5%Y/Y. 

What to watch | CPI 

The December quarter should be the peak for inflation. The global inflation pulse is weakening and indicators including yesterday's NAB Business Survey suggest price pressures are receding in Australia. If the consensus proves to be broadly correct, headline CPI will hit a lower peak than the 8% forecast by the RBA. Those forecasts will be updated for the upcoming meeting on February 7. The key question is whether the RBA will see enough signs in today's report, as well as from forward-looking indicators and global developments to forecast a faster pace of decline in inflation back to the 2-3% target band. Markets see there is a case for this scenario but are fairly divided over prospects for the February meeting. A below consensus CPI outcome could be more impactful for markets than an upside surprise, likely resulting in a February pause from the RBA shifting into favour. 

Macro (Re)view (20/1) | Not backing down

Markets have come out of the blocks strongly in 2023 boosted by an improving backdrop in Europe, China's reopening and more convincing signs of slowing inflation in the US. That momentum was checked somewhat during the week as central banks stuck to hawkish messaging while US economic data saw a broad-based deterioration. The Bank of Japan remained the outlier in that sense, resisting expectations in some quarters for further tweaks to yield curve control. Domestically, Q4's inflation report is the highlight on the calendar in the week ahead.  

Fed hawkishness still previls

Going into the blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting, Fed officials speaking during the week were determined to leave the markets unwavering from their resolve to continue hiking rates. The hiking pace does, however, look set to downshift to 25bps increments, with speeches from the Fed Vice Chair Brainard and Governor Waller highlighting moderating wage-price dynamics. The data flow also supports that course of action. US Retail sales posted their weakest outturns in a year, with falls of 1.1% for headline sales and 0.7% for the control group. Industrial production fell more than expected in December  (-0.7% vs -0.1%), consistent with weakness in manufacturing surveys. Meanwhile, pipeline price pressures saw a 0.5% fall on the headline PPI in December, its sharepest month-month decline since the onset of the pandemic, with the annual pace stepping down from 7.3% to 6.2%. 

Australian labour market activity slowed in December...  

A soft Labour Force Survey reported declines in employment (-14.6k vs 22.5k expected) and in the participation rate (66.6% from 66.8%) in December (reviewed here). Although disruptions associated with another wave of Covid cases could have been a factor - hours worked fell by 0.5% as illness-related absences picked up - the report may help bring a pause from the RBA into closer view. The unemployment rate held at 3.5% (revised up from 3.4% previously) but is potentially around the lows for the cycle. Employment on a 3-month annualised basis is still rising at a solid pace (2.6%), but the work force is now expanding at a similar rate (2.4%) with overseas migration ramping up on reopened borders. Next week's inflation report for Q4 is expected to result in a rise in inflation to 7.5%; however, that is lower than the RBA's forecast for 8%. 

... but consumer sentiment is improving 

Although the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index remains in deeply pessimistic territory, consumer sentiment looks to be on the improve. A 5% rise in January sees the index up by 8.1% from its recent low point. Consumers sense the coming year will be difficult as rate rises bite. Despite improving in this latest report, the year-ahead outlooks for personal finances and the economy remain below their long-run average levels. However, sentiment towards the labour market remains very robust and even improved in January.    

China shows resilience ahead of Covid zero exit  

Better-than-expected data ahead of the exit from Covid zero were found in the latest Chinese activity data. GDP growth in Q4 came in flat quarter-on-quarter against a more pessimistic consensus (-0.8%) that anticipated a deeper pullback from Q3 (3.9%) due to the return of pandemic restrictions. Consumer spending proved to be more resilient than anticipated, with retail sales down 1.8%Y/Y but significantly better than feared by markets (-8.6%). Added to this was an upside result for industrial production at 1.3%Y/Y (vs 0.2%). All in all, China's economy looks to have been on a firmer footing than anticipated and the earlier and wider easing of Covid restrictions is fuelling market optimism for an acceleration in activity there in 2023.    

Bank of Japan holds steady 

The BoJ resisted making further policy tweaks this week following its decision late last month to widen the range for yield curve control. Although the 10-year bond rate had been pressing against the 0.5% upper limit (raised from 0.25% in December, the BoJ is opting to lean on bond-buying rather than altering yield curve control, at least for now. Markets sense steps towards normalising monetary policy will ramp up once the successor (yet to be announced) to Governor Kuroda steps in. Inflation lifted from 3.8% to 4%Y/Y in December, a 41-year high; however, the BoJ's latest outlook is for price pressures to fall back below the 2% target in 2023 (1.6%) and 2024 (1.8%). Meanwhile, forecast growth has been trimmed to 1.9% for 2022 (down from 2%) and is seen softer over 2023 (1.7% from 1.9%) and 2024 (1.1% from 1.5%). 

UK inflation past the peak

December's data confirmed the unwind in UK inflation is underway but the progress is minimal so far. Surging household energy prices caused headline inflation to spike above 11% in October before easing to 10.7% in November and then to 10.5% in December. The core rate was unchanged at 6.3%, down from 6.5% in October. There is a chance inflation could temporarily rise in January, but sizeable base effects come into play thereafter and this should slow the pace substantially; the Bank of England forecasts inflation to be just above 5% by the end of the year. 

Governor Bailey, however, cautioned against complacency at this week's Treasury Committee hearing. That came as data on the labour market reported a stronger-than-expected rise in employment of 27k in November kept the unemployment rate around historic lows at 3.7%, supporting an uptick in wages growth to 6.4%yr. On the other hand, a very weak retail sales report for December (-1%m/m) indicates weakening demand could slow inflation pressures more quickly. 

ECB to keep pressing rates higher  

A milder winter leading to rapid declines in energy prices into China's Covid zero exit has sparked an upbeat start to the year in Europe. A Bloomberg report speculating on the ECB soon pivoting to a slower pace of rate hikes added to the optimism. However, key ECB officials pushed back against that notion at the Davos forum. ECB President Lagarde reiterated the main message from the account of the Governing Council's December meeting that rates were not yet at levels sufficiently restrictive to see inflation falling back to 2%. Meanwhile, Governing Council members Villeroy and Knot said the guidance coming out of the December meeting for rate hikes in 50bps increments remained appropriate.  

Australian employment -14.6k in December; unemployment rate 3.5%

Australian labour market activity softened in December, with today's report coming in weaker than expected across the key details. Another wave of Covid-related absences looks to have been a factor. The RBA's outlook for the labour market in 2023 will be a key talking point at the Board's February meeting, with the chances of a near-term pause in rate hikes perhaps slightly improved after today's data. 

Labour Force Survey — December | By the numbers

• Employment declined by a net 14.6k in December, disappointing expectations for a 22.5k increase. A downward revision pared the employment gain in the prior month from 64.0k to 58.3k.

• The unemployment rate printed at 3.5%, above the expected level (3.4%), but was unchanged after a revision in November (to 3.5% from 3.4%). Alongside this, there were rises in both the underemployment rate (6.1% from 5.8%) and the underutilisation rate (9.6% from 9.3%).   
• The participation rate eased from a record high in November (66.8%) to 66.6%, and the employment to population ratio lowered to 64.3% from 64.5%.  

• Hours worked declined by 0.5% in the month following a similar fall in November, with a rise in Covid-related absences a key contributor.

Labour Force Survey — December | The details

Employment unexpectedly fell in December (-14.6k) to register its weakest outturn since July's 19.8k decline. Full time employment continued to rise (17.6k) but was more than offset by a decline in the part time segment (32.2k). 

Overall, employment advanced solidly in the final quarter (87.3k); this was a pick up from the pace in Q3 (37.8k) when Covid-related and other seasonal factors disrupted hiring. For the most recent quarter, monthly employment averaged 29.1k, running at an annualised pace of 2.6%.

Although employment declined in December, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.5% on a revised basis. This was due to the participation rate falling from 66.8% to 66.6%, going against the recent run of play. The participation rate was on an upward trajectory through 2022, partly supported by the full reopening of the international borders as growth in the working-age population rebounded above pre-pandemic rates. 

The economy was hit by another wave of pandemic-related disruptions as Covid cases picked up. Monthly hours were down by 0.5% in December, as the number of people on reduced hours due to illness lifted by 86k in the month to over 600k, the highest level since August. 

Despite falls of 0.5% in November and December, hours worked still managed to rise by 2% for the quarter, carried by a 2.4% surge back in October. Overall, hours worked lifted by 3.2% over the year, to be up by 6.8% on pre-pandemic levels.  

December's weakness in part time employment and hours worked were key factors that drove rises of 0.3ppt in the underemployment rate (6.1%) and labour force underutilisation (9.6%). Both were coming off historically low levels, the latter from a 41-year low. 

Labour Force Survey — December | Insights

Australia's labour market remains in robust shape despite December's report coming in notably weaker than expected. That said, it does support the case for a near-term pause in the RBA's rate hiking cycle. Employment was still running at a solid pace in Q4 and this can probably be sustained given the still-elevated levels of job advertisements and vacancies. However, given the labour force is expanding at a similar pace on reopened borders, we may be at the lows for unemployment in the post-pandemic period. 

Preview: Labour Force Survey — December

Australia's Labour Force Survey for December is due at 11:30am (AEDT) today. Renewed strength in employment over recent months has seen the unemployment rate fall to and maintain new cycle lows at 3.4% alongside a return in the participation rate to record highs. This momentum is expected to have continued into the turn of the year.   

As it stands | Labour Force Survey

Employment increased by 64k in November, well above the topside of the range estimates and its strongest rise in 5 months. Both full-time (34.2k) and part-time employment (29.8k) contributed to the headline increase. Following the 2021 Census, the ABS updated its population estimates used for the Labour Force Survey. That process led to a significant upward revision to employment of 87.5k between July 2021 and October 2022. This boosted the rise in employment over the past year to 553.7k (4.2%), and to 781.6k (6%) above pre-pandemic levels.     

The unemployment rate held at its half-century low of 3.4%. Broader measures of labour force spare capacity tightened further; the underemployment rate came in from 6% to 5.8% and the total underutilisation rate declined from 9.4% to 9.3%, its lowest since 1982. 

Hours worked softened slightly in November (-0.4%) coming on the back of a sharp acceleration in October (2.4%). Seasonal and Covid-related factors have led to a volatile profile for monthly hours in 2022, but the level has risen sharply over the year (5.4%) and on a pre-pandemic comparison (7.6%), with these increases also revised higher from previous reports. 

The participation rate moved back up to a record high at 66.8% (from 66.6%), matching the level from June. Growth in the working-age population has accelerated (2%yr) boosted by the effect of the reopening of the international border on net overseas migration. 

Market expectations | Labour Force Survey

Employment on the median estimate is forecast to moderate to a 22.5k increase for the month. That is anticipated to hold the unemployment rate at 3.4%, based on an unchanged participation rate at 66.8%. 

What to watch | Labour Force Survey

Employment has surprised well to the upside of expectations in the past two reports, while the upward revisions made to prior months confirm the underlying momentum was stronger than earlier reported. The consensus figure for today's report is a relatively modest 22.5k and given the current trends, there looks to be scope for another upside result today. Measures of job advertisements and vacancies have come off their peaks but remain very elevated consistent with robust labour demand. 

Australian housing finance hits 2-year low in November

Australian housing finance commitments fell to a 2-year low in November as declining housing prices and rising interest rates continued to weigh on activity. Refinancing accelerated driving the level up to a new record high.

Housing Finance — November | By the numbers

• Housing finance commitments (ex-refinancing) fell by 3.7% for the month in November to $24.7bn. Commitments have fallen by 24.3% over the past year. 
• Owner-occupier commitments declined by 3.8% to $16.4bn (-24.8%yr), their lowest value since the onset of the pandemic and down 24.8%yr. 
• Investor commitments posted a 3.6% fall to $8.3bn (-23.2%), a low stretching back to April 2021.
• Refinancing elevated to a new record high level ($19.5bn) after rising by 8.2% in November (20.4%yr). 

Housing Finance — November | The details 

The effects of rising interest rates, tighter loan serviceability criteria and declining housing prices saw the value of newly written housing finance commitments fall to a 2-year low in November. Commitments were down for the 10th month in succession and are now 26% below the peak seen in January 2022. 

Commitments to the owner-occupier segment fell by 3.8% over the month, sliding back to mid-2020 levels. Lending across all borrower types remained on the slide (see summary table above). A 6.5% fall accelerated the decline in construction-related lending, its most sizeable decline in more than a year. Although cost pressures in residential construction could be easing, rising interest rates look more likely to be the decisive factor in this renewed weakness, particularly as loan volumes also fell sharply (-6.5%m/m).  

In the investor segment, commitments fell for the 8th month running to bring the level down to 26.7% below the cycle peak ($11.3bn in Mar-22). That is a steeper unwind than seen for owner-occupiers (-25.8% from its peak) despite that segment starting its descent earlier in 2022 and ahead of the first RBA rate rise.  

Amid an aggressive RBA rate hiking cycle, refinancing has reset to a new record high as borrowers switch lenders to obtain more competitive rates. The value of refinancing elevated through $19bn for the first time, up 20.4% on a year ago and 13.5% above their level in May when the first RBA rate rise for the cycle occured.

Housing Finance — November | Insights

Today's report was consistent with previous editions over recent months reflecting cooling conditions in housing markets across Australia. Declines in housing prices continued in December while the RBA continues to indicate that it expects to lift rates further.