This latest survey was for the period between 6-10 July measuring responses from 1,000 Australians. The key finding in today's survey was the spread in expectations over the timing of the recovery in Victoria compared to the other states. This divergence between a deteriorating picture in Victoria and a still weak but much less pessimistic dynamic across the rest of the nation is consistent with what has recently been shown in other high-frequency indicators such as Google's mobility indexes and consumer sentiment data. Overall, it would appear to add weight to the thesis that the key factor in achieving sustainable reopenings is keeping the virus under control.
Looking at the findings, around 73% of Victorians anticipated the return to normal would take between 3 months to more than a year, which compares to 62% for residents across the rest of Australia. It would be reasonable to think that level of divergence might have widened further since the survey was taken given that virus cases have continued to rise through the first two weeks of the Melbourne shutdown. A considerably higher proportion of Victorians were also unsure over the timing of the recovery (16.4%) than across the other states combined (7.8%). In Victoria, almost 23% saw the return to normal taking between 4-6 months, 18.1% forecast a quicker recovery of 3 months, 17.5% though it would take more than a year and 14.7% placed a timeframe of 7-12 months on that outcome. For the rest of Australia, opinions are really divided with 15.9% anticipating a return to normal within 3 months, 16.5% between 4 and 6 months, 11.5% within 7 to 12 months and 18.4% taking longer than a year. Additionally, there was 13.2% of Australians outside of Victoria who already felt that life had returned to normal. The ABS's chart (below) shows these outcomes.
Source: ABS
In looking out to the future, the survey also asked respondents what aspects of life under the COVID-19 restrictions would they like to continue in a post-pandemic economy. The top 5 responses were; spending more time with family and friends (29%), reducing environmental impacts (27%), spending less/saving more (25%), working or studying from home (25%) and embracing a slower pace of life (23%). Perhaps, one positive that can come out of the pandemic is the chance people have had to reassess what is important to their lives and adjust their behaviour accordingly. The responses to this question are summarised in the chart produced by the ABS (below).
Source: ABS