As it stands | Labour Force Survey
Employment contracted by 24.8k in October (revised from -19.0k) but recovered in November to post a much stronger-than-expected 39.9k increase against the consensus forecast for a gain of 15.0k. This ensured the annual pace of employment growth was little changed at around 2.0%, though this is near its softest pace since early to mid 2017. With the participation rate holding at 66.0%, the strong employment outcome comfortably outpaced growth in the labour force (23.1k) in the month and as a result, the unemployment rate unwound October's increase falling from 5.3% to 5.2%. Similarly, underutilisation (13.8% to 13.5%) and underemployment (8.5% to 8.3%) also fell to cancel out increases in October. Hours worked lifted by a modest 0.2% in November, with the annual pace firming from 1.4% to 1.7%.
For a full review of November's report see here
The consensus call from Bloomberg's survey of economists is for employment to rise by a modest 12.0k in December, with estimates ranging from -10.0k to 20.0k. No change in the unemployment rate is expected from its current level of 5.2%, though this is on the low side of estimates that range up to 5.4%, while the rate participation is forecast to remain at 66.0% (range: 66.0% to 66.1%).
The employment number is key in today's release. In the past 3 months, the outcomes have been; 13.3k in September, -24.8k in October and 39.9k in November, averaging 9.5k per month. This is well down from the 3-month average to September of 27.9k, in which employment increased by a total of 83.7k in the quarter. Employment clearly looks to be weaker in Q4, though the extent of the slowdown has been difficult to gauge given recent volatility with December's outcome to provide greater clarity here.
